I hate to be all rainy day Rob Neyer here, but this piece from Royals Authority really piqued my interest.  In it, the author argues that the Royals are indeed this good, if not better, and will continue at this pace (or higher) all season.  Frankly, that ain’t happening.  Here’s why.

For now, I’m willing to accept that the Royals’ improvement in the walks department is legitimate and Kevin Seitzer should probably run for president in three years.  Because honestly, if you can fix the Royals’ franchise long walk issues in one spring training, can world affairs really be that tough?

And now for some numbered reasons on why the Royals aren’t this good.

1.  Over 162 games, a 17-11 record translates to 98-64 for the year.  While theoretically possible, its really, really unlikely the Royals are going to finish with that kind of record.

2. Jose Guillen.  Currently he’s OPSing at .908.  This is Good Guillen.  However, he’s one of the streakiest players in the majors.  Jose is just as likely to post a .580 OPS next month as he is to keep this .908 up.  Having a “power bat outfielder” with a .580 OPS for a few months really tends to negatively impact your chances to win games.  Even moreso than a .908 helps you to win them.  Which means increasing production from players currently underperforming (Mike Aviles, David DeJesus) probably won’t be enough to offset it.

3. Alberto Callaspo.  It’s possible his improvement is genuine and this is simply the level he plays at when in AA.  I know that might sound kind of mean, but as a long time drinker/partyer athlete in college, I’m fully aware of how much having residual alcohol in your system can impact your capabilities on the field.  At this point, he’s a total unknown.  Probably not this good, although there is an outside chance he is.  If he does come down, it’ll be hard, because if you’re a .300 hitter and have a month of .380 to average out, you’ll also have a month of .220.  

4. Willie Bloomquist.  Yeah, it’s cute that he’s hitting and slugging right now, but we all know it won’t last.  And when wee willie and his inflated BABIP come down, they’re going to come down HARD.

5. Zack Greinke.  Heresy to mention him, right?  Well, Zack’s mental issues are well documented, as is his aversion to massive publicity (note his refusal to pose for the SI cover and dislike of his girlfriends enthusiasm for it).  It is entirely possible that the spotlight could cause him to tank hard at some point this season.  I think he has the ability to pull a Pedro-esque type season, but I also think he has the ability to pull a 2005 on us.

6. Strikeouts.  The team has a lot of guys on it who strike out an awful lot.  I don’t know for sure, but it definitely seems like the Royals are on some kind of record pace for LOB.  Some of that has to do with strikeout %.  I expect to lose a couple of games we should have won this year because of it.

7. Alex Gordon.  He’ll probably have an adjustment period when he comes back, and when he does, expect Teahan to get moved and expect his offense to take a trip southward when it happens.  I think we have enough disparate data points now that we can definitely say that Teahan is one of those guys who hits better when he’s comfortable with his position in the field.  At 3B he’s comfortable.  Moving around three times a week as a super utility guy… not so much.

8. Injuries.  I know, we’ve had a couple so far, but it’s a long season, and neither Crisp nor Guillen nor DeJesus are really known as endurance machines.  Expect more injuries and DL time as the season progresses.

9. 8-1.  That’s our record over the last nine games.  Here’s a hint.  It’s not continuing.

10.  Pressure.  The team is still pretty anonymous, and still has the whole “disrespect” card to play.  But if they keep this up, starting after the All-Star break, things will change.  Media coverage will intensify.  More fans will come out.  National press outlets will notice.  George Brett’s hair fell out during the chase for .400.  Pressure gets to you, and a division race is all kinds of new pressure the team doesn’t know about.  Guys’ play will suffer.

Look, I like the Royals this year.  I think they’re a really, really improved team.  I think they’ll have a winning record and be in the Central race to the end.  But I think right now, there’s a bit too much hoopla building around them because they’re having a nice couple of weeks.  Just remember this quote from Rob:  ”No team is as good as it looks when it’s winning, and team is as bad as it looks when it’s losing.”*

*The one possible exception to the bad looks/losing part is the 2006 Royals.  That team really WAS that bad. 

Tags: pressure, rob neyer, Royals, win percentage