I’ll start off by being honest.  I have no idea what the end result of all this will be.  I mean that too.  I really, really don’t.  But there are a few things I do know that a lot of people seem to have missed or to be willfully misinterpreting.

This isn’t a revolution for the West.  This is entirely a domestic event.  The Iranians saw their leadership blatantly steal an election that saw 85% turnout.  The Supreme Leader said it was divinely directed and the people could eat it.  This went over much, much more poorly than anyone expected it to.  In essence, this is a revolution FOR the revolution, not against it.

The reaction in the U.S. to events in Iran right now is kind of like the reaction of some Soviet officials to Nixon’s resignation.  Nixon leaving office ahead of an impeachment slip had nothing to do with US/Soviet relations and everything to do with abuse of power.  Suggesting that the Iranian populace would welcome foreign (read American) interference/”help” makes about as much sense as suggesting that America would have welcomed Soviet aid in 1974.

After all this is over and a stable (or unstable) Iranian government is re-established, the country is still going to want nuclear weapons because a nuclear armed country about 500 miles away (Israel) is constantly threatening to attack them.*  Iran and Israel still won’t like each other very much.  Iran will still want to meddle/have a voice in Iraq and Afghanistan, because both of those countries border Iran, and 1/3 of the last 30 years have been spent at war with them.  Iran is still going to be distrustful of the U.S. due to that whole “Shah of Iran”/CIA coup thing.  In other words, Iran isn’t about to don a pair of fluffy shoes and turn into Britain: Middle East.

Many people who are aware of this have taken the opposite approach and argued that no matter who wins power, nothing will change.  This is also wrong.  Iran’s massive “war boom” generation - born between 1980 and 1988 - is coming of age.  That’s a lot of people (more than half the total population) that don’t remember the Shah or the Islamic Revolution.  They’re better educated and more liberal than their parents are, and like all young people, they want to make a mark in the world.  They’re less hostile/more friendly to the West and more interested in improving thier standard of living and personal freedom than in avenging an old grudge.  That will produce concrete and significant shifts in tone and action.

The Islamic Republic’s democratic elements used to be a sop to the public, rigged and manipulated to provide the results the Supreme Leader wanted.  That’s all changed now, because the people believed the lie.  The believed the fiction that that Iran was a Republic.  And when they found out it wasn’t, they set out to make the lie true.

I’d just like to end this by saying that if you’re an American or a western European, or anyone who professes to love freedom, you have to be supporting the protestors right now, regardless of how you feel about Iran, Islam, or the Middle East.  These guys and girls are literally getting beaten to death in the streets right now just to have a chance at the sorts of freedom that everyone in an open society enjoys.  The courage and resolve of these people are amazing, and I wish them all the luck in the world in taking their country for themselves.

*I’m aware of all the stuff Iran has done to provoke Israel too and I’m not taking sides here, I’m just pointing out the Iranian perspective on this.  But given that Iran is in constant low level proxy conflict with Israel, they want nukes for the same reason we did during the Cold War and that India and Pakistan want them now.

Tags: #iranelection, democracy, iran, islamic revolution, mousavi, revolution